ChatGPT dominates the AI market, but the Google threat looms

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It happened to Kodak, BlackBerry, and Skype. From being synonymous with their products — in Kodak’s case, for over a century — to a rapid descent into obsolescence. 

Could this same fate be in the cards for ChatGPT?

While our NewtonX Prime Generative AI survey shows it’s unlikely in the short term, the future is less clear. And our respondents — 235 executives, analysts, and technology specialists — have ideas about who could steal ChatGPT’s crown. 

The name that pops up more than any other is Google. 

This should come as no surprise. Google was blazing the AI trail way before ChatGPT took the world by storm. The breadth of Google’s infrastructure also puts it in a much stronger position relative to other competitors. 

“…if there is a solution that calls for scale, Google is the best placed to provide it,” argues Stratechery’s Ben Thompson. “[Google] not only has a massive fleet of TPUs [Tensor Processing Units], but has also been developing those TPUs to run in parallel at every level of the stack, from chip to cluster to even data centers.” 

That said, Google’s “scale and an overwhelming infrastructure advantage” will only go so far. 

Ultimately, the product will have to live up to expectations. And, according to our research, it’s still falling short. 59.3% of respondents see Bard, Google’s generative AI tool, as a follower, not a leader. Net promoter score is also negative: -5 compared to ChatGPT’s 48. 

If history has taught us anything, it’s that a lot can change very quickly. But, as things stand, Google still has a lot of work to do to win over hearts and minds.